Lemma S4: the mixture of stopped null distributions #
This file proves Lemma S4 of the supplementary material, following its proof and that of
Proposition S5, as the intermediate theorem lem_lbmix_of_duality, which takes as hypotheses the
setting of Sections 1 and 2 and inequality (5) of Lemma 1 for the Gaussian null and the mixture
Q, and Lemma S6 in the same form (lem_fixedk_of_duality).
measurable_lbStoppingRuleandisStoppingTime_lbStoppingRule:τ'is a stopping time of(ℱ_t)for everyθ, measurable in(θ, x);measurable_lbRandomizedRule,isRandomizedStoppingTime_lbRandomizedRule, andlbMixture_mem_stoppedMixtures:τis a randomized stopping time for eachθ, so thatP̄ ∈ ℬ;volume_lbRandomizedRule_eq: given(θ, X),τstops att_kwith probability½ 1(τ' = t_k) + ½ ξ_{t_k};lb_sum_lbWeightsandlbWeights_mem_probVectors:ξis uniform on{t₀, …, t_K};lbDensityandstoppedAlternative_eq_withDensity_lbDensity:Q^ξhas densityξ_t Π_t/J_kwith respect toP̄on{t} × ℝ^tfort = t_k, whereΠ_t = ∏_{i=2}^t ℓ(Y_i)(the notation of the proof of Proposition S5), by the density identitylb_lintegral_mixture_eq;lb_integrable_log_prod_likandlb_integrable_log_lbJ:log Π_tandlog{(K + 1)J_k}areQ-integrable, the latter sinceβ' ≤ log{(K + 1)J_k} ≤ log{(K + 1)M} + x̄_t²/(2v₁)(lbJ_le_exp);klDiv_stoppedAlternative_lbMixture:KL(Q^ξ ‖ P̄) = ∑_k ξ_{t_k} E_Q{log(ξ_{t_k}Π_{t_k}/J_k)}, a nonnegative real number;lb_isEVariable_prod_lik:∏_{i=2}^t ℓ(Y_i) ∈ ℰ_t, so that its e-power underQis at most that of the numéraire;lem_lbmix_of_duality: Lemma S4;lem_fixedk_of_duality: Lemma S6.
For ρ² < 1 − s², the numéraires E*_t of Q need not be ∏_{i=2}^t ℓ(Y_i); as in the proof of
Proposition S5, Lemma 1 is applied with E_Q(log E*_{t_k}) ≥ E_Q{log ∏_{i=2}^{t_k} ℓ(Y_i)}.
The stopping rule τ' and the randomized stopping time τ #
The uniform randomization #
For k ≤ K and u ≥ 1/2, min{K, ⌊(2u − 1)(K + 1)⌋} = k exactly when
u ∈ [1/2 + k/(2K + 2), 1/2 + (k + 1)/(2K + 2)), the upper bound only for k < K.
The weights ξ #
The density dQ^ξ/dP̄ #
The density dQ^ξ/dP̄ of the proof of Lemma S4: ξ_t Π_t/J_k on {t} × ℝ^t for t = t_k,
k ≤ K, with ξ_t = 1/(K + 1) and Π_t = ∏_{i=2}^t ℓ(Y_i), and zero elsewhere.
Equations
- One or more equations did not get rendered due to their size.
Instances For
The density at t = t_k as a function of the path, ξ_t Π_t/J_k.
Q^ξ = P̄.withDensity g #
ξ_t Π_t/J_k × (J_k/Π_t) = ξ_t.
The integrand of ∫_A g dP̄ as a sum over the horizons t_k.
Q^ξ = P̄.withDensity g (proof of Lemma S4): dQ^ξ/dP̄ = ξ_t Π_t/J_k on {t} × ℝ^t for
t = t_k, since, given (θ, X), τ stops at t_k with probability ½ 1(τ' = t_k) + ½ ξ_{t_k},
and ∫ E_θ[{½ 1(τ' = t_k) + ½ ξ_{t_k}} f] π(dθ) = E_Q(f J_k/Π_{t_k}) for ℱ_{t_k}-measurable
f ≥ 0.
Integrability under Q #
Under Q, Y_i ∼ N(0, s²) for i ≥ 2.
log Π_t = ∑_{i=2}^t log ℓ(Y_i) is Q-integrable.
The Kullback–Leibler divergence KL(Q^ξ ‖ P̄) #
The mixture P̄ is a probability measure.
The divergence in the proof of Lemma S4:
KL(Q^ξ ‖ P̄) = ∑_k ξ_{t_k} E_Q{log(ξ_{t_k}Π_{t_k}/J_k)}, since dQ^ξ/dP̄ = ξ_t Π_t/J_k on
{t} × ℝ^t for t = t_k; the sum is nonnegative by Gibbs' inequality.
Lemma S4 #
Π_t = ∏_{i=2}^t ℓ(Y_i) ∈ ℰ_t for t ≥ 1: under P_θ, Y^t ∼ N(0, 1)^{⊗(t−1)}, and
∏_m ℓ(y_m) is the density of N(0, s²)^{⊗(t−1)} with respect to N(0, 1)^{⊗(t−1)}.
∑_t ξ_t R_t(E_t) ≤ max_{t ≤ T} R_t(E_t) for ξ ∈ Δ_T, since the regrets are
nonnegative.
Lemma S4 (lem:lbmix, Mixture of stopped null distributions), for every ρ > 0 and
any numéraires Es of Q, from the setting of Sections 1 and 2 and inequality (5) of Lemma 1:
P̄ ∈ ℬ and Γ_T ≥ (K + 1)^{-1} ∑_{k=0}^K E_Q[log{(K + 1)J_k}] (S8). Following the proof of
Proposition S5, E_Q(log E*_{t_k}) ≥ E_Q(log Π_{t_k}) with Π_t = ∏_{i=2}^t ℓ(Y_i), by the
log-optimality of the numéraire, and KL(Q^ξ ‖ P̄) = ∑_k ξ_{t_k} E_Q{log(ξ_{t_k}Π_{t_k}/J_k)}.
Lemma S6 (lem:fixedk), for every ρ > 0 and any numéraires Es of Q, from the setting
of Sections 1 and 2 and inequality (5) of Lemma 1: inequality (S8) of Lemma S4
(lem_lbmix_of_duality) gives (S9) (lem_fixedk_of_lbmix).