The numéraire and the regret #
This file proves the facts on the numéraire of Section 2 of the paper and Lemma S1 (Integrability of the numéraire), with the basic properties of e-variables, e-processes, and the minimax regret on which the later files rely.
dataFiltration_zero,eq_of_measurable_dataFiltration_zero:ℱ₀is trivial, so that anℱ₀-measurable function is constant;valueAt_of_eq_coe,valueAt_le_of_forall_le,valueAt_stopped: the valueE_τof a process at a timeτ;IsEProcess.isEVariable: the valueE_tof an e-process attbelongs toℰ_t;FiniteOptimalEPower.nonempty: under the standing assumption, the null is not empty;IsNumeraire.ae_pos_lt_top,IsNumeraire.integrable_log,IsNumeraire.isLogOptimal: a numéraire is positive and finiteQ-almost surely, with aQ-integrable logarithm, and it is log-optimal (Lemma S1);IsNumeraire.regret_eq_sub,IsNumeraire.regret_nonneg:R_t(E) = E_Q(log E*_t) − E_Q(log E) ≥ 0forE ∈ ℰ_t(Lemma S1), with Jensen's inequality for the logarithm (eIntegral_log_le_log_lintegral);IsNumeraire.ae_eq: numéraires are unique up toQ-null sets (Larsson, Ramdas and Ruf, 2025, Section 2);Setting.numeraire_zero:E*_0 = 1, sinceℱ₀is trivial;lem_regret_proof(Lemma S1) andsec2_numeraire_proof(Section 2);minimaxRegret_le_of_isEProcess,minimaxRegret_mono,Setting.minimaxRegret_nonneg: basic bounds on the minimax regretΓ_T.
The data filtration #
Since ℱ₀ is trivial, an ℱ₀-measurable function is constant.
Values at stopping times #
E-variables and e-processes #
Lemma S1 for a numéraire at one horizon #
Under the standing assumption, the null is not empty: otherwise the constant ∞ would be an
e-variable with infinite e-power.
Taking E ≡ 1 in the first property in eq. (2) gives E_Q(1/E*_t) ≤ 1.
Since log⁻ x ≤ 1/x, the negative part of log E*_t has Q-expectation at most one.
Since E_Q(log E*_t) is at most the finite supremum of the standing assumption, the positive
part of log E*_t is Q-integrable.
For E ∈ ℰ_t, the expectation E_Q{log(E/E*_t)} is well defined, since
log⁺(E/E*_t) ≤ E/E*_t, and Jensen's inequality gives E_Q{log(E/E*_t)} ≤ log E_Q(E/E*_t) ≤ 0.
The regret of an e-variable is nonnegative, by Jensen's inequality and the numéraire property (Lemma S1).
The regret is the loss of e-power relative to the numéraire (Lemma S1):
R_t(E) = E_Q(log E*_t) − E_Q(log E), since log E = log E*_t + log(E/E*_t) Q-almost surely
with an integrable first term.
The second property in eq. (2): the numéraire is log-optimal (Lemma S1).
Uniqueness of the numéraire #
Uniqueness of the numéraire (Larsson, Ramdas and Ruf, 2025, Section 2, after
Definition 2.1; the uniqueness of the log-optimal e-variable in their Proposition 2.4 follows from
it): two numéraires at horizon t are equal Q-almost surely. For U = E/E*_t, the numéraire
properties give E_Q(U) ≤ 1 and E_Q(1/U) ≤ 1. Larsson et al. conclude by the equality case of
Jensen's inequality; here U + 1/U ≥ 2, with equality only if U = 1, gives U = 1
Q-almost surely.
The setting of Sections 1 and 2 #
The numéraire E*_0 equals one, since ℱ₀ is trivial (Section 2): a constant c with
c ≤ 1 (an e-variable) and 1/c ≤ 1 (the first property in eq. (2) with E ≡ 1).
The regret of E*_t itself is zero.
An e-variable equal to E*_t Q-almost surely has regret zero.
The minimax regret #
Γ_T ≤ Γ_{T+1}, since the maximum in eq. (3) is taken over more horizons for T + 1.
Γ_T ≥ 0, since every e-process has a nonnegative regret at t = 0 by Lemma S1.